Abstract and keywords
Abstract (English):
The forecasting algorithm consists of three main steps. They are estimating of sediment fluxes and sediment budget for the coast under investigation, consideration of possible sea level changes and the model SPELT for a longterm modeling of coastal profile evolution. It is shown that the total sediment budgets at the main part of the Vistula Spit and at the Hel spit are nearly balanced. The only exception is the end part of the Vistula spit where the budget deficit is about 13 m3m-1year-1. According to the most plausible scenario the recession rate of the stable coasts of two spits would be about 0,3 m/y in 2010‒2050 and 0,4 m/y in 2050‒2100. For the end part of the Vistula spit the controlling factor is the sediment deficit, whereas the changes in sea level are of secondary importance. In the period 2010‒2100, the coast is expected to retreat up to 160‒200 m.

Keywords:
GULF OF GDANSK SAND
Text

Гданьский залив, расположенный в южной части Балтийского моря, характеризуется крупными песчаными косами, узкими и протяженными аккумулятивными формами. Вислинская (или Балтийская) коса отделяет Гданьский залив Балтийского моря от лагуны, называемой ом. Коса (или полуостров) Хель протянулась в юго-восточном направлении от порта Владиславово.

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